Tuesday, October 15, 2013

And why is the Stock Market Improving?


After months of getting nowhere fast, the Stock Market is looking like it wants to go higher. The S&P happens to be within striking range associated with your summer 2011 highs after hitting a low of 1074 back having fun October.

Why the sudden change in direction?

First, corporate earnings are usually well received. Apple itself had a blowout quarter, getting an even more positive market response, and now has the excellence of being the greatest market cap Stock earth, neck and neck along Exxon Mobil.

Next, the business senses an improving (albeit slow) monetary system, with weekly jobless a claim remaining under 400, 000 for a few consecutive weeks now. We are seeing an improved commercial picture and consumer sentiment is considered improving as well.

Also, lately there has been considerable technical improvement available for sale. Specifically, important indicators that technicians watch are becoming markedly better. For for sale sign, in early October of this past year, the 20 day moving average by the S& P - since it, the average closing price regarding preceding 20 day period - crossed as opposed to the 50 day moving average for the first time in a number of the months, which was an awfully bullish development. Additionally, the 20 day crossed over a 200 day in their early January, another bullish signal and resulting in a move higher.

We've also heard about yield on the 10 year treasury bond updates from a December low of just one. 8% to as very as 2. 09 from January 23. This move in yields indicates investors are willing to take on more possibility, benefiting equities.

Another key development happens to be the decline in the Volatility Index, or the "VIX" - commonly referred to as the "fear meter. " The VIX has gone from a reading in excess of 47 in early October they only have to over 18 in delayed January. That is a big shift in thinking, and indicating more willingness to acquire and trade Stocks.

Everything I've laid out has lead to a better market picture, but can it last? Where might the business be headed?

Some will tell you we are in a fairly easy election year, and that will influence market behavior. That could be true, but there usually events, some out as the blue, that can impact market performance. So, we pay improvement to what the maps and historical data tell us, with the belief and see if the market is always enthusiastic, and charts never lie.

It doesn't really make sense as an attempt predict where the market will be by the end of 2012; we're more focused on the here and now. But, if the bulls are willing to clear the high of yr after of 1370 on the regular S& P, it should set you up for the market to downfall even higher.

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